Advancing STI modelling in the UK: bringing together data, methods and community perspectives

On March 24, 2026, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Blood Borne and Sexually Transmitted Infections (HPRU BBSTI), in collaboration with the JUNIPER partnership, convened a one-day workshop exploring the future of sexually transmitted infection (STI) modelling in the UK.

The workshop brought together researchers, modellers, public health professionals, community organisations and people with lived and learned experience to discuss current approaches to modelling STI transmission and priorities for future development.

The UK is experiencing high levels of diagnoses of bacterial STIs, albeit with complex patterns across population groups, alongside emerging challenges such as antimicrobial-resistant gonorrhoea, including concerns about reduced susceptibility to ceftriaxone (the current first-line treatment), and mpox. Mathematical models, including network-based models, are widely used to understand transmission, evaluate prevention strategies and inform public health policy, but important questions remain about how these models are built, what data they rely on, and whose experiences are reflected within them.

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Building better STI models

The day opened with discussions on emerging modelling frameworks and the challenge of balancing model complexity with usability for public health decision-making.

Presentations covered:

• Reconstructing sexual networks to guide HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis distribution
• New agent-based modelling tools for STIs and mpox
• Incorporating structural drivers of sexual health inequalities into models
• Understanding the “right” level of complexity needed for policy questions

Across the session, there was growing interest in combining behavioural data, surveillance systems and phylogenetics to improve representation of STI transmission and prevention.  

A key theme of this session was the need to better understand connections between different sexual networks and populations, particularly between gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) and heterosexual populations. This would help improve understanding of STI incidence trends, changes in epidemiological patterns, and the effects of sexual health preventative interventions.  

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Why community perspectives matter

A key focus of the workshop was how community engagement can strengthen STI modelling research. Representatives from community organisations reflected on the importance of involving communities not only in shaping research questions but also in improving model assumptions, interpreting findings and avoiding stigmatising language or framing. A strong case was made for improving collaboration with people from inclusion health populations, such as people who do sex work.

Discussions highlighted that many experiences relevant to STI transmission and prevention remain poorly captured in existing datasets, including:

• Barriers to accessing sexual health services
• Experiences of underserved and excluded populations
• Patterns of international travel and sexual mixing

Speakers emphasised that models are only as good as the assumptions and data behind them, and that meaningful collaboration with affected communities is essential for ensuring models reflect real-world experiences.

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Strengthening the link between data and models

The afternoon sessions focused on the relationship between data collection and modelling. Presentations highlighted opportunities from new and existing datasets, including Natsal-4, UKHSA surveillance systems and emerging genomic data. Researchers discussed how combining multiple data sources could improve understanding of transmission dynamics and intervention impact.

At the same time, speakers identified several important evidence gaps that continue to limit modelling work, such as:

• Limited quality-of-life data for STI complications
• Gaps in data on underserved populations
• Limited understanding of partner notification effectiveness
• Challenges in linking sexual health clinic and primary care datasets, while maintaining patient confidentiality

There was also strong interest in exploring how digital tools and novel clinical data could help improve behavioural and network data collection in future studies.

Looking ahead

The workshop concluded with collaborative discussions on priorities for future STI modelling research in the UK. Key priorities identified included:

• Developing models that better represent multiple populations and overlapping sexual networks
• Improving understanding of behavioural responses to interventions
• Strengthening collaboration between modellers, epidemiologists, community organisations, and public health agencies
• Integrating behavioural, genomic, surveillance and economic data more effectively
• Improving representation of underserved and hidden populations in STI research

By bringing together expertise from modelling, public health, behavioural science, and community organisations, the workshop highlighted the value of interdisciplinary collaboration in responding to increasingly complex sexual health challenges.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all speakers, facilitators and attendees who contributed their expertise and perspectives throughout the workshop. The event was organised by the NIHR HPRU BBSTI in collaboration with the JUNIPER partnership. For further information about this workshop or related research activities, please contact: Liz Fearon (e.fearon@ucl.ac.uk), Roeann Osman (roeann.osman@ukhsa.gov.uk), or Luxsena Sukumaran (luxsena.sukumaran.19@ucl.ac.uk)

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